Good Morning, Noble Managers!
Why this newsletter matters to you:
As a manager, we're constantly asked to predict the future - next quarter's demand, inventory needs, pricing changes, etc.
It's impossible. But there are proven tools that help us make better predictions. Today, we'll focus on the money supply and the Fed.
What you'll get:
By the end of this newsletter, you'll understand M2, money market funds, and the quantity theory of money, and how these economic signals help us predict market surpluses and shortages before they happen—fundamental tools, not crystal balls.
3 Key Insights:
M2 Surge = Demand Spike Warning
When M2 surged $1.7T in Q2 2020, smart managers knew demand would explode. Walmart acted early, competitors got caught short.
The pattern repeats every cycle.
The Liquidity Triangle
Track M2 growth + money market funds + Fed actions.
This triangle predicts shortages (stock up) or surpluses (stay lean) 6 months before they hit mainstream news.
2025 Yellow Alert
Current signals: M2 growth 4.5% (below 6.8% average), money market funds $7T+ (up 15%), tariffs on $200B imports.
Translation: Cautious demand, potential electronics shortages.
2 Resources
Free Tool: Liquidity Signal Scorecard - Input M2 data, get instant risk level Data.
Source: FRED M2 Tracker - Monitor monthly changes like Walmart does
1 Action
Master the complete system: Read "Predict Demand Shifts 6 Months Before Competitors with M2 and Fed Signals."
Learn the 5-step playbook that turns Fed data into inventory wins.
[Get the Full Playbook → https://thenoblemanager.beehiiv.com/p/predict-demand-shifts-6-months-before-competitors-with-m2-and-fed-signals]
Keep it noble!
Filippo,
Founder, The Noble Manager
P.S. What's your biggest inventory challenge for 2025? Hit reply - I read every response.