Good Morning, Noble Managers! It’s Wednesday, June 18.

Topic: Innovation Adoption | Behavioral Strategy | S-Curve Timing
For: B2B and B2C Managers.
Subject: Innovation → Practical Application
- Concept: Overcome behavioral resistance with better framing and timing
- Application: Use the 9x Effect and S-Curve to launch products or transformations effectively

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TL;DR:

Why better products fail: The 9x mismatch between innovators and customers
Tesla vs. Nissan: How timing and framing made one a hit, the other a struggle
Fix it fast: Use the 9x Scorecard and S-Curve to map risks before your next launch

Introduction

You built something better. It solves real problems. The numbers make sense.

So… why aren’t people switching?

Welcome to what Harvard professor John Gourville calls the “Curse of Innovation.”

Consumers irrationally overvalue what they have by 3×.
Innovators irrationally overvalue what they’ve built by 3×.

Result?

A 9x mismatch between how good your offer really is vs how good it feels.

Businesses that address this gap are more likely to succeed with new launches.

Let’s use the 9x Effect and S-Curve to time, frame, and deliver your next product or transformation so it lands, not crashes!

Why Better Products Fail: Tesla vs. Nissan

Tesla and Nissan both launched EVs from scratch, but their outcomes couldn’t be more different.

Tesla’s Model S became a category-defining hit, while Nissan’s Leaf struggled for years.

Why?

Tesla: Targeted early adopters (low resistance), framed as a luxury upgrade (minimal behavior change), and launched as EV infrastructure grew (end of ferment phase).
Nissan: Pitched the Leaf to the mass market too early (high friction), with limited charging stations and lower perceived benefits.

Tesla felt like a Smash Hit. Nissan felt like a Long Haul. (More on these later).

The difference wasn’t just the car—it was psychology, timing, and delivery.

Nail these, or your innovation fails, even if it’s 10x better.

The 9x Mismatch Explained

Harvard’s John Gourville calls this the “Curse of Innovation”:

Harvard Business Review - John Gourville

Consumers overvalue what they have by 3x: They cling to familiarity (e.g., gas cars).
Innovators overvalue their creation by 3x: You see your product’s brilliance, but they don’t.
Result: A 9x mismatch—your product must feel 9x better to overcome resistance.

Tesla closed the gap by targeting innovators and framing the Model S as a status symbol, not a sacrifice.

Nissan didn’t, pushing the Leaf to skeptics before the market was ready.

Timing and framing are everything.

Visual Framework: The 4 Innovation Types

So, how do you ensure customers will accept your new product/service?

The first step is understanding what kind of change you demand from customers.

Harvard Business Review - John Gourville

Mapping the degree of behavior change required and the degree of product change involved, you get 4 types of innovation:

Smash Hits → Big product innovation, low behavior friction (Tesla Model S)
Long Hauls → Big innovation, but high behavior shift (Nissan Leaf)
Easy Sells → Small improvement, low friction (incremental upgrades)
Sure Failures → Low innovation + high user disruption (a hard no)

👉 You do create value through innovation, but you capture that value by minimizing behavioral change.

Tactical Tool: 9x Innovation Risk Scorecard

Before your next product rollout or transformation, assess your risk with this scorecard. Answer yes/no:

Does your product require users to change routines, habits, or systems?
Does it remove a benefit users currently like (e.g., speed, familiarity, status)?
Are you emotionally invested in the new solution’s logic or elegance?
Do you assume the value is obvious without external proof?
Have you tested framing it from the loss side (what they avoid) vs. the gain?
Have you segmented by behavioral readiness (Innovators vs. Laggards)?
Are you building complementary infrastructure (e.g., education, onboarding)?
Is your messaging built for believers—not skeptics?

Risk Levels:

Risk Level	Score	Action
Smash Hit	0-2	Launch with confidence
Long Haul	3-5	Frame carefully, test small
High Risk	6-8	Rethink timing or audience

Assess your setup in just 3 minutes with our interactive 9x Innovation Risk Scorecard! Link here.

Where Are You on the S-Curve?

Timing matters as much as framing. The S-Curve maps how technologies evolve:

Overlay with Adoption Segments:

Ferment: Target Innovators and Early Adopters (low resistance).
Growth: Reach Early and Late Majority (message safety, proof).
Maturity: Focus on efficiency for Laggards (trust, herd behavior).

Tesla launched the Model S at the end of ferment—charging stations were growing, and early adopters were ready.

Nissan pitched the Leaf to the majority during ferment, before infrastructure or trust was there.

Gies College of Business - MBA 551 Strategic Innovation - Prof. Geoff Love and Prof. Michael Roach - Live Session

⚠️ Timing ≠ calendar date. It’s psychological market readiness.

✅ Ask yourself: Is the market still in Ferment, but you're pitching like it's in Growth?

The 9x Launch Playbook: 4 Steps to Break the Curse

Close the 9x gap and time your launch with this checklist:

Step 1: Identify the Behavior You’re Replacing

What do customers currently do, believe, or value?
What are you asking them to give up (e.g., familiarity with gas cars)?

💡 Tip: Losses loom larger than gains. Frame gains as preserving something they already value.

Step 2: Place Your Innovation on the S-Curve

Are you in Ferment (uncertain category) or Growth (clear standards)?
Look for “firm takeoff” (multiple players entering) before “sales takeoff” (mainstream buyers).

Step 3: Choose Your Adoption Segment First

Match your offer to Innovators early—don’t target skeptics in Ferment.
Innovators want novelty; Early Majority want proof; Late Majority want comfort.

Step 4: Build Behavioral Bridges

Make the new feel familiar:
- Offer hybrids (e.g., Tesla’s familiar UI).
- Run side-by-side trials.
- Provide time-limited guarantees.
- Invest in education and onboarding.

💡 Tip: Reduce the perceived switching cost more than you increase the benefit.

Pitfalls to Avoid:

Launching to the wrong segment (e.g., skeptics in Ferment).
Ignoring infrastructure needs (e.g., no charging stations for EVs).

Limitations:

Requires market research to identify S-Curve phase.
Behavioral framing may need testing to get right.
Not all products fit the S-Curve (e.g., niche B2B tools).

This applies to products, services, and internal transformations.

3 Critical Insights for Smarter Launches

Psychology Beats Logic
Tesla won by framing for early adopters, not by being “better” than Nissan.
Timing Is Market Readiness
Nissan launched too early—before the market was psychologically ready.
Reduce Friction First
Behavioral bridges (trials, guarantees) close the 9x gap faster than benefits.

What’s Your Innovation Risk Level?

Did you score Smash Hit, Long Haul, or High Risk on the 9x Innovation Risk Scorecard? Reply or share on X—I’d love to hear how this playbook can help!

Final Thought

Innovation isn’t about being better. It’s about being accepted. Close the 9x gap, time your launch, and your product won’t just launch—it’ll land.

Until next time, keep innovating—and keep it noble!

Filippo Esposito
Founder, The Noble Manager

The Curse of Innovation: Why Better Products Still Fail